St. Petersburg, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

801
FXUS62 KTBW 242340
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
740 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 739 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

- Above normal temperatures are expected through the weekend and
  into early next week.

- Thunderstorms are expected to develop each day, mainly in the
  afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 739 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Thunderstorms will continue to push west from the Tampa Bay region
northward across the Nature Coast for a couple hours after sunset
before diminishing. Farther inland and to the south, thunderstorms
have already ended for the day. With the loss of daytime heating and
the now cooler temperatures thanks to earlier rain, no new
development is expected through the evening.

The forecast remains on track this evening, with no major
adjustments needed at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Our southeasterly flow will remain in place for Sunday.
This will once again favor mainly evening storms along the seabreeze
boundary about 10 to 20 miles away from the coast. These storms will
slowly drift to the west coast as we go throughout the rest of
the evening and early overnight hours.

We will not see much of change next Monday and Tuesday. The only
difference is a little drier air which will allow storm chances to
drop slightly. The bigger change will start on Wednesday as our
upper level flow starts to switch more southwesterly in response to
upper level troughing over the area. This will help to bring deep
tropical moisture over the area through the end of the week and into
our Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 739 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

For KTPA and KPIE, VCTS will continue for a couple more hours, with
temporary impacts at the field for another hour or so before storms
push west. Once these storms subside, all terminals should see quiet
conditions overnight and through tomorrow morning. A stronger
easterly flow favors a lower chance for storms tomorrow. However,
every terminal still has about a 30% chance for thunderstorms during
a three-to-four window in the late afternoon/evening hours.
Thunderstorms will continue to be possible each day, primarily in
the afternoon and evening hours, into the foreseeable future.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Not much changing through Tuesday. We will continue to see
south to southeasterly winds around 5 to 15 knots. Showers and
storms will develop inland in the late afternoon and push towards
the coast and into the Gulf from the late evening into the early
overnight hours. Upper level winds will switch to the southwest on
Wednesday bringing in deep tropical moisture over the area. This
will bring overnight showers and storms over the Gulf that will
push towards the coast in the morning hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Summertime moisture with afternoon showers and storms will
continue through next Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  90  77  90 /  70  50  40  50
FMY  76  94  76  93 /  40  30  20  50
GIF  75  92  76  92 /  40  30  20  40
SRQ  75  91  75  92 /  60  50  30  40
BKV  72  92  73  93 /  70  50  50  50
SPG  76  92  77  93 /  60  40  30  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 7
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 7

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Flannery
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Shiveley